Characterization of meteorological droughts in the Haouz plain in Morocco: an analysis over the period 1984-2023

Abstract

Groundwater plays a crucial role in the Moroccan context, representing a vital resource for the country's socio-economic development. However, the growing demand for water for domestic, agricultural, recreational and industrial needs is exposing this resource to significant pressures, making it particularly vulnerable, especially in the face of drought, which is proving to be a more devastating catastrophe than other natural hazards. This research focuses on the characterization of meteorological droughts in the Haouz plain, one of Morocco's largest aquifer regions, covering some 6 200 km2, with Marrakech as its capital. In this region with its arid to semi-arid climate, groundwater is the only available resource. The study is based on the analysis of temperature and precipitation, with the aim of monitoring the evolution of these factors between 1984 and 2023. The distribution of weather stations from the east to the west of the region was examined to determine climatic variations and assess the visibility of the climate change signal. The results of meteorological analysis over a 37-year period reveal that the Haouz plain is highly exposed to successive years of drought, particularly marked from 1998 to 2023. This period was characterized by a predominance of dry years over wet ones. These meteorological changes increase the risk of intensive groundwater exploitation to satisfy human needs and socio-economic objectives.